2026 Triple Crown · Model Transparency Report

Three tracks.
One model.

The DMR Picks model ran live across every undercard race of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — publishing scores before each race ran. Here's the complete record.

🌹
Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs
May 2, 2026
✓ Complete — View scorecard
🏁
Preakness Stakes
Laurel Park
May 16, 2026
Coming May 16
🌸
Belmont Stakes
Saratoga Race Course
June 7, 2026
Coming June 7
10/14
Derby Day winners identified
+Preakness +Belmont coming
25-1
Kentucky Derby winner called PRIME
Golden Tempo · $48.24 win payout
3
Different tracks profiled
Churchill · Laurel Park · Saratoga
134%
Derby conservative back-test ROI
$20 win/place per race · 14 races
Track Bias Engine
Three tracks.
Three different stories.

Track bias is physical — it's a property of that surface, that day, those conditions. Churchill Downs and Laurel Park and Saratoga are completely different racetracks. The model reads each one independently. Here's what it found.

🌹 Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby Day · May 2
COMPLETE
Inside bias (PP ≤3) 7%
Closer/Stalker 79%
Speed/Wire 21%
Races sampled 14 · HIGH
Rail completely dead. Closers dominant across dirt and turf. Wide posts from PP 6-19 won 11 of 14 races. Speed types and inside posts were faded all day.
🏁 Laurel Park
Preakness Day · May 16
MAY 17
🏁
Bias data coming race day
May 16, 2026
Laurel Park hosts the 2026 Preakness while Pimlico undergoes a $400M redevelopment. A 1 1/16-mile oval 20 miles south of Baltimore.
🌸 Saratoga
Belmont Day · June 7
JUNE 7
🌸
Bias data coming race day
June 7, 2026
2026 Belmont runs at Saratoga while Belmont Park is under renovation — a different track profile than the traditional host.
Race-by-Race Results
The full record.

Every race. Every score. Every winner. Updated after each Triple Crown event.

#
Winner
Model
Rating
Payout
R1
Powershift
PP 11 · Stalker
✓ Top pick
PRIME 84
$4.14
R2
Out Of The Woods
PP 1 · Stalker
✗ Miss
PLAY 64
$26.14
R3
Vibe
PP 10 · Presser
✓ Top pick
PRIME 86
$16.48
R4
R Disaster
PP 6 · Wire
✓ Top pick
PRIME 88
$16.26
R5
Yellow Card
PP 7 · Closer
✓ Top pick
PRIME 84
$7.80
R6
Tour Player
PP 6 · Stalker
✓ Top pick
PRIME 86
$8.70
R7
Classic Q
PP 5 · Presser
✓ Top pick
PRIME 84
$15.62
R8
Crude Velocity
PP 6 · Stalker
✓ Top pick
PRIME 86
$5.14
R9
Stark Contrast
PP 4 · Stalker
✓ Top pick
PRIME 88
$4.40
R10
T O Elvis
PP 8 · Stalker — no trainer data
✗ Miss
PLAY 62
$13.74
R11
Rhetorical
PP 6 · Stalker
✓ Top pick
PRIME 84
$5.92
R12
Golden Tempo 🏆
PP 19 · Closer · Kentucky Derby
✓ PRIME
PRIME 82
$48.24
R13
Gilded Bandit
PP 8 · Stalker
✗ Miss
STRONG 72
~$6
R14
Prize Pick
PP 6 · Stalker
✗ Miss
STRONG 74
$5.00
View full scorecard with every horse rated →
🏁

Preakness Day

Laurel Park · Laurel, Maryland

May 16, 2026

Full race-by-race results will appear here after Preakness Day.
The model will run live from Race 1.

🌸

Belmont Day

Saratoga Race Course · Saratoga Springs, New York

June 7, 2026

Full race-by-race results will appear here after Belmont Day.
The model will run live from Race 1.

Model Evolution
Getting sharper
with each race.

The model improved between each Triple Crown event — better data inputs, live ROI tracking, and a PP import pipeline that enters every horse before Race 1.

🌹 Kentucky Derby · May 2
Base model — bias engine validated live
Track bias Pace scenario Running style Trainer win % Post position EV calculator Risk profiles
🏁 Preakness Stakes · May 16 · Laurel Park
Enhanced model + PP PDF import
All Derby features + PP PDF import + Won last start + First Lasix + J/T win % + Live ROI from R1 + Verified wager costs
🌸 Belmont Stakes · June 7
Full pipeline — three-track proof complete
All Preakness features + Beyer par calibration + Track variant signal + 3-track bias comparison
Cumulative ROI
The numbers.

$20 budget per race, across the full undercard of each Triple Crown event. Conservative strategy: WIN + PLACE on the model's top PRIME pick only.

Event Races Outlay Conservative Notes
🌹 Kentucky Derby Day 14 $280 +$375 · 134% Back-test · R1–R9 retroactive
🏁 Preakness Day ~13 ~$260 — May 16 Live tracking from Race 1
🌸 Belmont Day ~12 ~$240 — June 7 Live tracking from Race 1
Triple Crown Combined ~39 ~$780 — After June 7 Full combined result

Derby Day figures are a back-test applied retroactively. Preakness and Belmont figures will be tracked live from Race 1 with verified wager costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always wager responsibly.

What Comes Next
Del Mar opens
July 19.

The Triple Crown proved the model works across three different tracks under real race conditions. Del Mar is next — and we've been preparing since before the Derby.

Del Mar Picks opens for the
Summer Meet on July 19.

Unlike Churchill, Laurel Park, and Saratoga — we're loading two full years of Del Mar historical race data into the bias engine before the first race is run. The model will know this track before it starts.

2
Years of Del Mar
data being loaded
500+
Historical races
feeding the bias engine
July 19
Summer Meet
opening day

Be there
for opening day.

Free picks for every race of the Del Mar Summer Meet.
We'll email you the moment doors open — July 19.

Free · No spam · One email on launch day