The DMR Picks model ran live across every undercard race of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes — publishing scores before each race ran. Here's the complete record.
Track bias is physical — it's a property of that surface, that day, those conditions. Churchill Downs and Laurel Park and Saratoga are completely different racetracks. The model reads each one independently. Here's what it found.
🌹 Churchill Downs
Kentucky Derby Day · May 2
COMPLETE
Inside bias (PP ≤3)7%
Closer/Stalker79%
Speed/Wire21%
Races sampled14 · HIGH
Rail completely dead. Closers dominant across dirt and turf. Wide posts from PP 6-19 won 11 of 14 races. Speed types and inside posts were faded all day.
🏁 Laurel Park
Preakness Day · May 16
COMPLETE
Inside post (PP ≤4)86%
Wire/Presser (dirt)64%
Closer/Stalker36%
Races sampled14 · HIGH
Rail strongly favored all day. Inside posts PP1-4 won 12 of 14 races. Dirt wire-to-wire speed dominant — fade all closers on dirt. Turf more open, stalkers competitive.
🌸 Saratoga
Belmont Day · June 7
JUNE 7
🌸
Bias data coming race day
June 7, 2026
2026 Belmont runs at Saratoga while Belmont Park is under renovation — a different track profile than the traditional host.
Race-by-Race Results
The full record.
Every race. Every score. Every winner. Updated after each Triple Crown event.
Full race-by-race results will appear here after Belmont Day. The model will run live from Race 1.
Model Evolution
Getting sharper with each race.
The model improved between each Triple Crown event — better data inputs, live ROI tracking, and a PP import pipeline that enters every horse before Race 1.
All Derby features+ PP PDF import+ Won last start+ First Lasix+ J/T win %+ Live ROI from R1+ Verified wager costs+ Bulk AI analysis+ Exacta box engine+ Scratch exclusion+ Fade suppression
🌸 Belmont Stakes · June 7
Full pipeline — three-track proof complete
All Preakness features+ AI turf model+ Softmax calibration+ Trifecta engine
Cumulative ROI
The numbers.
$20 budget per race, across the full undercard of each Triple Crown event. Conservative strategy: WIN + PLACE on the model's top PRIME pick only.
Event
Races
Outlay
Conservative
Notes
🌹 Kentucky Derby Day
14
$280
+$375 · 134%
Back-test · R1–R9 retroactive
🏁 Preakness Day
14
$95
+$7.90 · 8.3%
WagerRecommendations · targeted AI scoring
🌸 Belmont Day
~12
~$240
— June 7
Live tracking from Race 1
Triple Crown Combined
~39
~$780
— After June 7
Full combined result
Derby Day figures are a back-test applied retroactively. Preakness and Belmont figures will be tracked live from Race 1 with verified wager costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always wager responsibly.
What Comes Next
Del Mar opens July 19.
The Triple Crown proved the model works across three different tracks under real race conditions. Del Mar is next — and we've been preparing since before the Derby.
Del Mar Picks opens for the Summer Meet on July 19.
Unlike Churchill, Laurel Park, and Saratoga — we're loading two full years of Del Mar historical race data into the bias engine before the first race is run. The model will know this track before it starts.
2
Years of Del Mar data being loaded
500+
Historical races feeding the bias engine
July 19
Summer Meet opening day
Be there for opening day.
Free picks for every race of the Del Mar Summer Meet. We'll email you the moment doors open — July 19.